Big Oil Sees Mixed Fortunes as Q3 Revenue Slips but Profits Edge Higher

The world's five largest international oil companies reported a slight overall decline in revenue but a modest increase in profits for the third quarter of 2025, with a noticeable divergence in performance between North American and European firms.

The companies – Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and bp – recently published their Q3 2025 financial results. Analysis indicates that falling international oil prices and relaxed industry supply and demand conditions led to a slight overall dip in operating revenue. In contrast, net profit saw an overall year-on-year increase, though individual company performances varied significantly.

Overall Revenue Dips Slightly, Profits Edge Up

In the third quarter of 2025, the five major firms achieved a combined operating revenue of US$303.371 billion. This represents a modest year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, though it marks a 4.6% increase compared to the previous quarter.

Their combined net profit attributable to shareholders reached US$21.253 billion, a 6.9% increase year-on-year and a significant 21.5% rise quarter-on-quarter.

The individual results were as follows:

• Exxon Mobil recorded Q3 operating revenue of US$85.294 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year. Its net profit was US$7.548 billion, a 12.3% year-on-year decrease.

• Chevron reported third-quarter operating income of US$49.726 billion, down 1.9% year-on-year. Net profit stood at US$3.539 billion, down 21.1% year-on-year.

• Shell achieved third-quarter operating income of US$70.41 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year. Its net profit was US$5.322 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase.

• TotalEnergies recorded third-quarter operating revenue of US$48.691 billion, a 6.4% year-on-year decrease. Net profit reached US$3.683 billion, surging 60.5% year-on-year.

• bp reported third-quarter operating revenue of US$49.25 billion, a 1.9% year-on-year increase. Its net profit reached US$1.161 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase.

Profit-Boosting Factors Impacting Performance Metrics

Key factors driving profitability in Q3 2025 were increased oil and gas production, rising refining margins, and structural cost reductions.

Production Growth: Increased output helped offset pressure from lower oil prices. The combined oil and gas production for the five companies reached 16,546 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 6.5% year-on-year increase.

North American majors led this growth. Chevron achieved new corporate records, with US and global production equivalents rising 27% and 21% year-on-year, respectively, driven by its acquisition of Hess and growth in the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico. Exxon Mobil saw favourable production growth in the Permian and Guyana. In Guyana, it surpassed a milestone of over 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and started the Yellowtail project four months ahead of schedule. In the Permian, production approached a record 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Among European firms, TotalEnergies saw a 4.1% year-on-year production increase, driven by fields in Brazil, the US, Argentina, and Denmark, and acquisitions in Malaysia and Texas. Shell and BP reported essentially stable production compared to the same period last year.

Refining Margins: Rising refining margins were another major profit driver. Shell's global indicative refining margin reached US$11.58 per barrel, a 109.4% increase from US$5.53 per barrel a year earlier. TotalEnergies' European refining benchmark margin hit $63 per tonne, a 309.1% increase from $15.4 per tonne. BP's average refining indicative margin rose 81.6% to $15.8 per barrel, from $8.7 per barrel in Q3 2024.

In North America, Chevron's US downstream net profit surged 337% year-on-year to $638 million. The industry-wide rise also propelled Exxon Mobil's Energy Products segment net profit to $1.84 billion, a 40.6% increase.

Cost Reductions: Structural cost cuts also supported profits. Exxon Mobil reported cumulative structural cost savings exceeding $14 billion since 2019, targeting an additional $2.2 billion by the end of 2025 and over $18 billion by 2030. BP cited improved efficiency, asset divestments, and workforce reductions as factors supporting profit growth. Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies have also actively pursued structured cost-reduction programmes.

Profit-Eroding Factors Affecting Performance Metrics

The primary challenges in Q3 2025 were declining international crude oil prices, scheduled maintenance, and asset impairments.

Oil Price Decline: This was the main profit-reducing factor. The average Brent crude oil futures price in Q3 2025 stood at US$68.17 per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Compared to 2024, prices in July, August, and September decreased by $14.33/bbl, $11.62/bbl, and $5.29/bbl, respectively. The average WTI price was $64.97/bbl, down 13.6% year-on-year.

Company-Specific Issues: The profit declines at Exxon Mobil and Chevron contributed to the North American downturn. Exxon Mobil's increased capital expenditure and depreciation costs, coupled with low chemical margins, impacted its bottom line. Chevron's decline was partly due to costs associated with its acquisition of Hess Corporation.

Notably, profit-enhancing factors largely offset these challenges, leading to overall profit growth for the sector, albeit with a regional performance gap.

Fourth-Quarter Uncertainties

Natural gas prices showed mixed trends in Q3. The averages for US Henry Hub, European TTF, and Asian JKM were $3.04, $11.11, and $11.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), respectively. These represented year-on-year changes of +46.0%, -2.4%, and -10.0%.

Looking ahead to Q4 2025, the industry faces both positive and negative factors. Potential supports include intensified Western sanctions on Russia, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting US monetary policy. However, these are weighed against concerns over weak global economic momentum, seasonal demand declines, high OPEC+ production levels, and rising global crude inventories. The continued downturn in the international oil market is expected to cast a shadow over the companies' full-year operating performance.