China's Export Growth Turns Negative in October Amid Weakening Global Demand
China's Export Growth Turns Negative in October Amid Weakening Global Demand
China's foreign trade has shown resilience in 2025, though its export expansion has slowed against a backdrop of cooling international demand, official figures reveal.
According to statistics from China Customs, the nation's total goods import and export value for the first ten months of the year reached RMB 37.31 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Exports grew by 6.2%, while imports remained largely flat compared to the same period in 2024.
However, the export growth rate for the January-October period fell to 3.6%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points from the 7.1% growth recorded in the first three quarters. A sharper slowdown was evident in October alone, which saw exports contract by 0.8% in renminbi terms and by 1.1% in US dollar terms. This represented a significant deceleration of 9.4 percentage points from September's growth and marked the first instance of negative growth since February, coming in slightly below market expectations.
Analysts Point to Broad Slowdown in External Demand
Analysts attribute October's shift to negative annual export growth to three primary factors.
Firstly, a high base effect from October 2024 suppressed the year-on-year comparison. Typhoon disruptions in September 2024 were more severe than usual, causing a concentration of export shipments into October and significantly elevating the comparative base.
Secondly, a working-day effect was at play, as this year's Mid-Autumn Festival fell in October, reducing the number of operational days and thereby dampening export volumes. These two factors were also the direct drivers behind September's sharp export acceleration of 8.3%. When combining the September and October figures to adjust for these distortions, the average two-month year-on-year growth rate stands at a less volatile 3.5%.
Thirdly, the impact of US high tariffs on global trade and Chinese exports continues to manifest, with overall external demand slowing. Notably, China's exports to the United States fell steeply by 25.2% year-on-year in October, a figure largely unchanged from the previous month. This decline directly dragged down the overall export growth rate by 3.8 percentage points.
This trend is not isolated to China. Following US tariff hikes on major global economies in August, both US imports and exports to the US from other key economies saw substantial declines in October, indicating a broader shift towards contraction in global trade.
As a barometer for world trade, South Korea's exports grew by 3.6% year-on-year in October, a sharp deceleration of 9.1 percentage points from the previous month, with momentum significantly weaker than seasonal patterns. China's export growth to other major partners also slowed: figures for the EU, Japan, ASEAN, and Belt and Road partner economies in October were 0.9%, -5.7%, 11.0%, and 2.8% respectively. These represented significant decelerations of 13.2, 7.5, 4.7, and 14.3 percentage points from September. After adjusting for base and working-day effects, China's export momentum to these regions was seen to have weakened across the board.
Exports Maintain Areas of Strong Resilience
Despite the turbulent external environment, China's exports continue to demonstrate considerable resilience, supported by trade diversification and specific product strengths.
In the first ten months, China's trade with ASEAN and the EU maintained growth, rising by 9.1% and 4.9% respectively, and accounting for 16.6% and 13.1% of total trade. Trade with Belt and Road partner countries grew by 5.9%. Conversely, trade with the United States declined by 15.9%, accounting for 9% of the total.
By product category, machinery and electrical goods constituted over 60% of exports. In the first ten months, exports of these products grew by 8.7%. Within this category, integrated circuits increased by 24.7% and automobiles by 14.3%, while automatic data processing equipment and its components decreased by 0.7%.
This strength was mirrored in October's monthly data. Chip exports rose by 26.9% year-on-year, while automobile exports surged by 34.0%. Concurrently, private enterprises saw their imports and exports grow by 7.2%, accounting for 57% of the total-an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. Foreign-invested enterprises recorded a 2.9% increase, representing 29.3% of the total.
In contrast, exports of labour-intensive products fell by 3.0% in the first ten months, accounting for 15.3% of total exports. Within this category, clothing and accessories decreased by 3.0%, textiles increased by 1.8%, and plastic products fell by 0.1%. Agricultural product exports increased by 2.0%.
There are also positive signals from shipping. Data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on 31 October showed the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose by 10.5% compared to the previous period. Transport demand on European routes remained broadly stable, while North American routes saw robust booking activity and rising freight rates. Market rates for shipments from Shanghai to major ports on the US West and East Coasts increased by 22.9% and 13.4% respectively.
Meanwhile, China's imports, measured in renminbi, increased by 1.4% in September, marking a fifth consecutive month of expansion, albeit at a significantly slower pace. With mounting downward pressure on exports, analysts suggest China's import momentum may also decelerate within the country's 'large-scale import and export' foreign trade framework.