Why Did TMA Prices Halve in 2025? From 50,000 to 20,000 Yuan
Prices Plunge to Near Cost Levels
In late May 2025, China's mainstream price for Trimellitic Anhydride (TMA) collapsed to 22,000 yuan/ton, down 50% from its peak at the beginning of the year and approaching the industry's average cost line of 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton. Some high-cost producers are now facing losses.
- May 2025 average price: 26,111 yuan/ton, down 35.79% month-on-month and 35.37% year-on-year.
- June 2025: Prices in East China further dropped to 20,000-22,000 yuan/ton, with weak market sentiment.
2024 Boom vs. 2025 Crash
In 2024, the permanent shutdown of INEOS's U.S. TMA plant slashed global capacity, while recovering downstream demand pushed China's TMA prices to a historic high of over 50,000 yuan/ton.
However, by 2025, the market reversed sharply:
- Weak domestic demand: Slumping real estate, coatings, and plasticizer industries reduced TMA purchases.
- Export slump: Anti-dumping tariffs and global economic slowdown cut China's overseas orders, leading to rising factory inventories.
- Price decline: After weakening in Q1, prices fell to 36,000 yuan/ton in April, then halved by June.
Expansion Wave Sparks Oversupply Fears - A 2026 Price War?
Despite a current global supply gap of ~60,000 tons, multiple expansion plans are raising concerns about a 2026 oversupply crisis:
- Changqing Technology: Announced an 80,000-ton/year TMA project (Phase 1 to start in 2026).
- Taida New Materials: Expanding by 30,000 tons TMA + 1,500 tons trimellitic acid, targeting 2026 completion.
- Zhengdan Co.: Launched a 65,000-ton green upgrade project (3.5B yuan investment) in June 2024, expected in 2026.
If all expansions proceed, global TMA capacity could exceed 330,000 tons by 2026, far exceeding demand and triggering a new price slump.
Limited Cost Support, Squeezed Margins
While feedstock trimethylbenzene prices remain stable (~7,000 yuan/ton), TMA's plunge near cost levels has severely compressed profits.
Outlook: Low Prices Now, Price War Ahead?
- H2 2025: Prices may stay low and volatile amid weak demand and pre-emptive market reactions to future oversupply.
- 2026: With new capacity flooding the market, a price war could erupt, pressuring margins further and accelerating industry consolidation.