China's Acrylonitrile Market: Supply-Demand Tug-of-War Drives Price Fluctuations

Considering both domestic and global factors, the outlook for China's acrylonitrile market in the second half of 2025 suggests a higher probability of declining prices in the early months followed by a moderate rebound. However, the persistently low industry margins are expected to constrain price volatility within a narrow range.

* Propylene: The supply-demand balance for propylene is anticipated to remain relatively loose. With oversupply pressures gradually emerging, the market may continue to show signs of a lackluster peak season, with price trends increasingly influenced by supply-side shifts.

* Synthetic Ammonia: After a period of stabilization at lower price levels, a modest rebound in China's synthetic ammonia market is expected in H2 2025. Nevertheless, ample domestic supply and restrictions on fertilizer exports will likely sustain supply-side pressure, capping any significant price surges. Consequently, prices in key production regions are likely to rise only modestly compared to past years, with a more rational adjustment pace.

China's domestic acrylonitrile supply is projected to see incremental growth in H2 2025. However, the overall market release may remain limited, with some new capacity potentially delayed until 2026.

* Jilin Petrochemical's new 260,000 t/y acrylonitrile plant is scheduled to start operations in Q3.

* Tianjin Nangang (INEOS)'s 130,000 t/y plant has been completed and is expected to begin production around Q4, pending confirmation of the actual startup date.

With these additions, China's total acrylonitrile production capacity will reach 5.709 million t/y, representing a 30% YoY increase.

On the demand side, China's ABS sector is set to see further capacity expansions in H2 2025.

* Yulong Petrochemical is expected to launch its remaining 300,000 t/y ABS line.

* Jilin Petrochemical's new 600,000 t/y ABS unit is scheduled for startup in Q4.

* Daqing Petrochemical and Shandong Yike, which began operations in mid-June, are anticipated to gradually ramp up output in H2.

* Zhejiang Petrochemical's Phase II plant may also reach full capacity during this period.

Overall, ABS production is expected to see incremental growth in domestic supply.

Additionally, several acrylamide plants are slated for commissioning in 2025, with noticeable downstream capacity expansions expected between 2025–2026. However, the actual operating rates post-commissioning remain a key factor to watch.

In summary, China's acrylonitrile market in H2 2025 is likely to follow a decline-then-rebound pattern.

* Prices may hit their lowest point of the year in July and August.

* If propylene prices stabilize around August–September, acrylonitrile prices could stage a rebound, though the recovery is expected to be mild.

The limited rebound potential is primarily due to thin profit margins in downstream industries, which may curb production enthusiasm and, consequently, demand growth. However, seasonal demand upticks during the traditional “Golden September, Silver October” period may offer temporary market support.

Despite this, the market's overall upward momentum will likely be restrained by ongoing capacity additions in Q3 and prevailing market skepticism. Close attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of downstream ABS facilities, which could significantly influence market sentiment.