China's Caustic Soda and Related Chemical Output Rise in September, Driven by Strong Downstream Demand

The latest data from China's National Bureau of Statistics and Customs reveal a steady expansion in the country's caustic soda and downstream chemical industries in September 2025, despite mixed performance across upstream raw materials.

In September 2025, China's caustic soda output, calculated at 100% purity, reached 3.874 million tonnes, marking a 5.2% year-on-year increase. From January to September 2025, total caustic soda production stood at 34.324 million tonnes, up 5.0% year-on-year, highlighting stable industrial demand and operational recovery across the chemical manufacturing sector.

Upstream, the supply of raw salt-an essential feedstock for caustic soda-showed contraction. China's raw salt production in September was 5.037 million tonnes, down 9.4% year-on-year, while cumulative output from January to September totalled 45.150 million tonnes, representing a 1.1% year-on-year decline.

Downstream sectors demonstrated stronger growth momentum. In September, alumina output reached 7.999 million tonnes, up 8.7% year-on-year, while cumulative production between January and September climbed 8.4% to 68.560 million tonnes. The production of machine-made paper and paperboard (excluding processing of externally purchased base paper) rose 6.3% year-on-year to 14.259 million tonnes in September, with total output during the first nine months reaching 121.128 million tonnes, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year.

The fabric sector posted a modest gain in September, with output reaching 2.81 billion metres, up 0.4% year-on-year, though total production from January to September slightly declined by 0.3% to 23.77 billion metres. In the synthetic detergent segment, September output stood at 1.111 million tonnes, edging down 0.1% year-on-year, while cumulative production rose 1.5% to 8.486 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, customs data pointed to significant fluctuations in China's dichloromethane trade. In September 2025, imports reached 56.5 tonnes, surging 430.6% month-on-month and 481.3% year-on-year. Exports stood at 18,830.0 tonnes, up 39.8% month-on-month and 54.9% year-on-year. The average export price was US$352.3 per tonne, reflecting declines of 7.4% month-on-month and 15.6% year-on-year. From January to September, dichloromethane imports totalled 121.8 tonnes, a sharp 94.2% decrease year-on-year, while exports reached 155,038.6 tonnes, up 35.2%.

Turkey, Vietnam, Brazil, Nigeria, and South Korea ranked as the top five destinations for China's dichloromethane exports over the nine-month period, collectively absorbing 67,462.9 tonnes, or 43.5% of total exports. Specifically, exports to Turkey stood at 22,183.5 tonnes (14.3%), Vietnam at 15,430.7 tonnes (9.9%), Brazil at 11,154.8 tonnes (7.2%), Nigeria at 9,836.1 tonnes (6.3%), and South Korea at 8,857.9 tonnes (5.7%).

In the chloromethane market, September 2025 imports amounted to 1,863.0 tonnes, while exports reached 194.4 tonnes, down 89.6% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year. The average export price was US$379.0 per tonne, a 33.2% increase month-on-month. From January to September, China imported 3,438.5 tonnes of trichloromethane, down 22.6% year-on-year, and exported 1,510.5 tonnes, a 23.9% decline year-on-year.

South Korea, Brazil, Ukraine, Argentina, and Iran were the top five destinations for chloromethane exports during the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 1,466.9 tonnes, or 97.1% of total exports. Among them, South Korea received 1,330.9 tonnes (88.1%), followed by Brazil with 72 tonnes (4.8%), Ukraine with 40 tonnes (2.6%), Argentina with 24 tonnes (1.6%), and Iran with 24 tonnes (1.6%). All exports were conducted under general trade arrangements.

Overall, the data underline China's steady industrial output growth, particularly in the caustic soda and alumina sectors, while highlighting contrasting trends in upstream inputs and trade performance across the chlorinated chemicals market.