Trump Threatens 155% Tariff on Chinese Imports in Stakes-Raising Trade Move

In a joint press conference at the White House with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on 20 October, US President Donald Trump issued a stark ultimatum on Sino-American trade, threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 155% while also confirming plans for a forthcoming visit to China.

President Trump declared that if a trade agreement is not reached by 1st November, an additional 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese goods. This levy would be applied on top of the existing 55% tariff, creating a combined effective rate of 155%.

'China’s paying 55% and a potential 155% come November 1st unless we make a deal,' President Trump stated.

Despite the hardened rhetoric, the President expressed optimism about reaching an agreement and confirmed his intention to meet with Chinese officials during the APEC summit in South Korea later this month.

Analysts suggest that a tariff rate of 155% could effectively sever US-China economic relations, leading to a full-scale 'decoupling'. However, they also note that President Trump's unpredictable negotiation style often aims to maximise gains through threats while ultimately seeking a deal to avoid the worst-case scenario. The repeated tariff warnings and the proactive announcement of his China visit are widely seen as tactics to strengthen the US bargaining position.

China's September Soybean Imports Shift Dramatically from US

Amid these escalating trade tensions, recent trade data reveals a significant realignment in global soybean trade flows. China imported no soybeans from the United States in September.

In a stark contrast, China's imports from South American producers surged substantially year-on-year. Imports from Brazil rose by 29.9% to 10.96 million tonnes, constituting 85.2% of China's total oilseed imports for the month. Shipments from Argentina saw a dramatic increase of 91.5% to 1.17 million tonnes, accounting for 9% of the total.

This pronounced shift underscores how US soybean exports to China have plummeted to historic lows since President Trump took office earlier this year, a direct consequence of the ongoing trade friction.

A US market research firm has forecast that if China does not return to the US market by mid-November, America could lose soybean orders worth 14 to 16 million tonnes. Losing the Chinese market is equated with losing half of the entire global market for US soybean exporters.

US and India Near Trade Deal with Major Tariff Reductions

In a separate trade development, the Indian media outlet Mint reported on 21st October, citing informed sources, that India and the US are close to finalising a trade agreement.

The reported terms indicate that the punitive tariffs of up to 50% currently imposed on a range of Indian exports could be significantly reduced to a rate of 15%-16%.

Energy and agriculture were identified as pivotal sectors in the negotiations. Mint reported that India may agree to gradually reduce its oil imports from Russia in exchange for these US tariff concessions.

Previously, The Times of India indicated that the initial outcomes of this trade pact were expected to be finalised between October and November. The broader agreement aims to elevate bilateral trade volume to US$500 billion by 2030.

The urgency for India is heightened as its exports to the US have already fallen sharply this September due to the high tariffs. Concurrently, President Trump has repeatedly linked India's energy policies with trade tariffs, increasing the pressure on New Delhi to secure a deal.