China Reports Rising Caustic Soda Output Amid Sluggish PVC Export Market

China's Caustic Soda Output Rises in October, Upstream and Downstream Sectors Show Mixed Performance

Official data has revealed a rise in China's caustic soda production for October 2025, while key sectors within its supply chain presented a varied picture of growth and contraction.

According to the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the nation's output of caustic soda (calculated on a 100% basis) reached 3.897 million tons in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Cumulative production from January to October 2025 totaled 38.241 million tons, marking a 4.6% rise compared to the same period last year.

The upstream raw salt sector, however, experienced a decline. Production of raw salt in October was reported at 6.314 million tons, down 1.8% compared to October 2024. The total output for the first ten months of the year stood at 51.459 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year.

In downstream industries, performance was mixed. Alumina production saw robust growth, with October output reaching 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to October reached 76.344 million tons, representing a significant 8.0% increase.

The production of machine-made paper and paperboard, excluding the processing of externally purchased base paper, also expanded. October output was 14.346 million tons, a 5.9% year-on-year increase, bringing the year-to-date total to 135.156 million tons, up 3.5%.

Conversely, fabric output contracted in October, falling 6.4% year-on-year to 2.62 billion meters. The cumulative output for the January-October period was 25.37 billion meters, down 4.5% compared to the same period last year.

Output of synthetic detergent in October was 1.098 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year. However, the cumulative output for the first ten months showed a positive trend, totaling 9.822 million tons and reflecting a 1.5% year-on-year increase.

China's PVC Export Market Sees Increased Orders Amidst General Downturn

In a separate market development, China's Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) export market has largely continued a previous downward trend, although recent order volumes have shown an increase.

On the supply side, operating rates at Chinese PVC production facilities remain high, ensuring ample market availability. Both manufacturer and social inventory levels are reported to be at elevated positions.

Internationally, demand from other countries was subdued in early November, with downstream buyers maintaining a cautious procurement strategy and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

However, market analysis indicates a shift following the announcement of relevant policies in India. This development has improved market expectations, leading to a more positive negotiation atmosphere for Chinese PVC exports and a consequent rise in foreign trade orders.

Analysis suggests that in the short term, these favourable policies may provide a degree of support to China's PVC export market. Nevertheless, market participants are advised to continue monitoring ongoing changes in overall supply-demand dynamics and broader market conditions closely.