China's Offshore Energy to Drive Oil Output Growth as Production Nears 68 Million Tonnes by 2025

The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) Group Energy Economics Research Institute has recently released the China Marine Energy Development Report 2025, projecting that China's offshore oil production will reach approximately 68 million tonnes by 2025. This represents a year-on-year increase of around 2.5 million tonnes and is expected to contribute roughly 80% of the country's total oil production growth.

According to the report, China will continue to intensify offshore exploration by 2025, steadily strengthening the resource base for expanding offshore oil and gas reserves and production. By the end of the third quarter of this year, five new discoveries had been made in China's maritime areas, alongside the successful evaluation of 22 oil and gas structures and the commissioning of 11 new projects. A major breakthrough was achieved in the submarine mountain region of the Beibu Gulf Basin with the discovery of the Huizhou 19-6 oil field, China's first deep-to-ultra-deep clastic-rock oil field with reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes.

The report further notes that the global oil market is expected to remain well supplied in 2025, placing downward pressure on international oil prices. Against the backdrop of slowing global economic momentum and accelerated substitution by new energy sources, global liquid fuel consumption is forecast to reach approximately 104 million barrels per day, an increase of about 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year. Global oil supply is projected to rise to 105 million barrels per day, up 2.6%. Under these conditions, China's crude oil production is expected to continue growing and potentially reach new highs.

In the natural gas sector, the global market is projected to achieve a basic balance between supply and demand by 2025. Amid multiple disruptive factors, natural gas prices are expected to rise significantly. China's domestic natural gas market will operate steadily, although consumption growth is set to slow markedly. Offshore natural gas production has expanded at a relatively rapid pace. In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) segment, the year-on-year growth rate of new global supply in 2025 has increased significantly, with LNG projected to account for more than 60% of China's total natural gas imports by 2030.

Zhang Jianhua, former Director of China's National Energy Administration, stated that building a new energy system should focus on three key areas: the clean and efficient utilisation of fossil energy, the secure and reliable substitution of non-fossil energy, and innovation-driven development. He noted that China's offshore oil and gas exploration and development still holds substantial potential, with abundant resources requiring sustained efforts to boost reserves and production capacity in order to maintain offshore output as the main driver of China's petroleum production growth.

The report also indicates that by 2025, capital expenditure on offshore oil and gas by major global oil companies will continue to rise, reinforcing offshore operations as a core growth engine for global hydrocarbon supply. In China, demand for offshore oil and gas engineering equipment has increased, with both the scale and technological level of offshore oilfield service equipment ranking among the world's leading. Equipment utilisation rates exceed the global average, with mobile drilling rig utilisation reaching 94%.

At the same time, global offshore wind power continues to expand rapidly. Cumulative installed capacity is projected to reach 94.15 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. China's offshore wind sector has resumed rapid growth, with cumulative grid-connected capacity expected to reach approximately 48.77 million kilowatts. New grid connections show clear regional concentration and batch commissioning characteristics, while floating offshore wind power is accelerating technological breakthroughs.

Zhang Chuanjiang, Chairman of CNOOC, stated that marine energy is rapidly emerging as a primary pillar of energy supply and a key strategic high ground. He emphasised that natural gas, as a clean fossil fuel, plays a crucial bridging role between traditional and new energy sources, and that deepening the utilisation of LNG is an inevitable choice for advancing the green transition. In addressing new circumstances and challenges, he stressed the need to adopt a systematic approach while simultaneously promoting traditional sectors such as deepwater oil and gas exploration and emerging industries including offshore wind power.

The report projects that global energy-related carbon emissions and primary energy consumption will peak within the next five to ten years. While clean electricity is developing rapidly and gradually becoming the largest end-use energy source, fossil fuels will remain indispensable as a stabilising force ensuring energy accessibility and system reliability. The ocean is increasingly becoming a new high ground for global energy supply, with more than 30% of oil, 37% of natural gas and 7% of electricity expected to be sourced from marine energy. This will form a three-dimensional marine energy supply system characterised by the integration of subsea oil and gas production with offshore green electricity generation.