China 2025 Energy and Chemical Exports: Fertiliser Shipments Surge as Petrol and Diesel Decline

China's 2025 year-end assessment of energy and chemical commodity exports reveals a sharp divergence between fertiliser products and refined oil products. Policy adjustments, global demand shifts, and domestic supply-demand dynamics drove significant export growth in selected fertilisers, while petrol and diesel shipments declined amid weaker international demand and quota constraints.

Top Export Growth Performers in 2025

No. 1 Growth: Urea

China's urea exports are projected to reach 5 million tonnes in 2025, surging 1,809.85% year on year. The dramatic increase was primarily driven by policy changes. After more than a year of strict export controls, domestic oversupply intensified in 2025, with persistent price declines stimulating export demand.

In late May, authorities relaxed legal inspection requirements and introduced a quota-based allocation system. Between May and November, four batches of export quotas were issued, significantly boosting shipments and export profitability.

Looking ahead, urea exports are expected to continue rising in 2026 as the gap widens between expanding production capacity and sluggish downstream demand. Export volumes are forecast to exceed 6 million tonnes.

No. 2 Growth: Ammonium Sulphate

Ammonium sulphate exports are projected at 21.05 million tonnes in 2025, up 22.92% year on year. Growth was supported by strong international demand — particularly from Southeast Asia — alongside elevated global urea prices, which enhanced the price competitiveness of Chinese ammonium sulphate and expanded substitution demand.

Additional drivers included ongoing domestic capacity expansion, insufficient downstream demand from compound fertiliser producers, streamlined export procedures, and improved customs clearance efficiency.

Export growth is expected to moderate in 2026 due to slower capacity release, product mix optimisation, and localised policy adjustments. Nevertheless, resilient overseas demand, supportive policies, and competitiveness advantages are expected to sustain steady export volumes.

No. 3 Growth: Compound Fertilisers

China's compound fertiliser exports are projected to reach 4.9516 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 137.59% year-on-year increase.

Key drivers included the suspension of export inspections from May to September, which reduced clearance costs and timelines, as well as a recovery in global demand during the first half of the year that lifted prices. Chinese products maintained strong cost-performance advantages, encouraging export sales.

Major agricultural markets such as Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia increased investment, driving demand, while geopolitical disruptions to fertiliser supply chains in some regions prompted increased sourcing from China. Domestically, new production capacity coming online ensured ample supply, and widening supply-demand imbalances pushed enterprises toward overseas markets. Trade facilitation under the Belt and Road Initiative further reduced logistics costs.

However, exports of double and triple superphosphate fertilisers fell sharply from the fourth quarter due to closed export windows, exhausted quotas, and policies prioritising winter stockpiling and spring ploughing. As a result, compound fertiliser exports are expected to decline significantly in 2026, with volumes estimated at around 2.3 million tonnes.

Top Export Declines in 2025

No. 1 Decline: Petrol

China's petrol exports in 2025 are projected at 7.9445 million tonnes, down 18.35% year on year. The decline was mainly driven by weak global demand and limited export arbitrage opportunities.

Exports are expected to rebound modestly in 2026 as rising new energy penetration exacerbates domestic supply-demand imbalances, increasing the need for exports. However, growth will remain constrained by limited quotas, with exports forecast at 8.5 million tonnes.

No. 2 Decline: Diesel

Diesel exports are projected to reach 6.6358 million tonnes in 2025, a 17.13% year-on-year decrease. The downturn was largely due to export quota restrictions and a strategic shift toward jet fuel exports.

A mild recovery is anticipated in 2026, supported by weak domestic economic conditions and a pronounced diesel supply-demand imbalance. Exports are projected at around 7 million tonnes.

Third-Largest Decline: Diammonium Phosphate

Diammonium phosphate exports are projected at 3.5033 million tonnes in 2025, down 23.23% year on year. The decline reflects China's continued emphasis on 'ensuring supply and stabilising prices', which significantly reduced export quotas. In addition, the suspension of mandatory inspection procedures narrowed export channels, limiting quota utilisation.

Exports are expected to continue declining in 2026 due to policy factors, with volumes estimated at approximately 3 million tonnes.

Overall, China's 2025 export landscape for energy and chemical commodities underscores the decisive role of policy adjustments and global market conditions, with fertilisers emerging as the primary growth engine while refined oil products faced sustained pressure.