China API Trade 2025: Exports Stall, Imports Surge

According to customs data compiled by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import & Export of Medicines & Health Products, China's total import and export value of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and intermediates reached USD 55.25 billion in 2025, up 2.7% year on year.

Behind the seemingly stable headline figure lies a sharp divergence: export stagnation contrasted with surging imports, underscoring deeper shifts amid global supply chain restructuring.

Exports Stabilize While Imports Surge in 2025

In 2025, China's API exports totaled USD 42.87 billion, edging down 0.3% year on year and remaining broadly flat compared with 2024. Over the past decade, export growth has gradually plateaued, with a clear adjustment phase emerging since 2023.

Two structural pressures explain the slowdown. First, sluggish global economic growth has dampened overseas demand. Second, intensified domestic competition has pushed many manufacturers to adopt volume-driven pricing strategies, limiting overall export value growth despite stable shipment volumes.

In contrast, imports showed exceptional dynamism. API and intermediate imports reached USD 12.38 billion, soaring 14.5% year on year.

The growth was driven by two primary factors:

• Rising international procurement prices for certain basic chemical raw materials and intermediates, lifting average import prices.

• Explosive demand for high-end APIs, particularly peptides. Peptide API imports alone surged to USD 3.25 billion, up 47.4% year on year, becoming the core engine of import expansion.

Diverging Performance Across Key Product Segments

Vitamins: Price Swings Define the Year

Vitamin exports reached USD 3.75 billion, up 8.7% year on year. Growth in the first half was supported by a temporary export window following production disruptions at BASF in Germany, which drove prices sharply higher.

However, after BASF resumed production in the second half, export prices fell rapidly. Average prices for vitamins A and E in the fourth quarter nearly halved compared with the first quarter. Meanwhile, vitamin C and B2 prices remained under pressure throughout the year, while only vitamins B1 and B12 demonstrated relative price resilience.

Antibiotics: Broad Weakness Weighs on Sector

Antibiotic exports totaled USD 3.07 billion, down 9.1% year on year. Penicillin products, a major weighted category, were the primary drag, with export value plunging 23.8% and prices falling nearly 30% from the beginning to the end of the year.

Although products such as lincomycin and tetracycline achieved modest growth through volume expansion, they were insufficient to offset the broader sectoral downturn.

Hormones: Peptide Boom Drives Breakout Growth

Hormones emerged as 2025's standout performer. Fueled by booming global demand for weight-loss and diabetes treatments, peptide hormone API exports surged 81.7% year on year to USD 900 million.

This momentum lifted total hormone API exports to USD 1.83 billion, representing a robust 30.4% annual increase.

Trade Map Shifts: Traditional Markets Hold, New Players Rise

From an export geography perspective, Asia and Europe remained the two pillars, jointly accounting for roughly three-quarters of total exports.

India and the United States retained their positions as China's top two export destinations, though performance diverged. Exports to India grew slightly by 2.1%, while shipments to the United States declined 9.9%, influenced in part by anticipated trade frictions.

On the import side, Europe overtook Asia as China's largest source region, with growth approaching 20%. Denmark stood out prominently: leveraging its strength in peptide API supply, Danish exports to China jumped 57.1% year on year, making it China's largest API import source country since 2023.

Indonesia also rose sharply to become China's third-largest import source, driven largely by volatility in glycerol prices, highlighting the short-term impact of bulk commodity fluctuations on trade data.

Intensifying Global Competition and Policy Headwinds

Looking ahead, China's API sector faces an increasingly complex external environment.

India is accelerating upstream integration through policy tools such as production-linked incentive schemes, expanding into intermediates including penicillin industrial salts while introducing minimum import prices to shield domestic producers. The historically complementary China–India relationship is gradually shifting toward direct competition.

Meanwhile, Europe and the United States are pursuing supply chain localization strategies. The European Union's proposed Critical Medicines Act aims to prioritize local procurement and reduce dependence on third-country suppliers, including China. Following its Section 232 investigation, the United States is widely expected to leverage tariffs and differentiated agreements with allies to promote pharmaceutical reshoring. U.S. trade policy implementation remains the largest uncertainty factor for 2025.

Resilience Amid Structural Rebalancing

Overall, China's API foreign trade performance in 2025 demonstrates resilience under complex global conditions. While exports have entered a plateau phase, the sharp rise in imports signals strong domestic demand for high-value and technologically advanced products.

Going forward, Chinese API manufacturers will face a triple challenge: intensifying international competition, higher regulatory and market entry thresholds, and elevated policy risks. Strategic positioning within the reconfigured global supply chain — through product upgrading and market diversification — will be critical to sustaining long-term growth.