China Q1 2026 GDP Grows 5% as Trade and Industry Surge

China reported stable economic expansion in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP growth reflecting improved industrial momentum, resilient services activity, and steady consumption despite ongoing external uncertainties.

Preliminary data showed gross domestic product reached 31.4193 trillion yuan in Q1, up 5.0% year-on-year in constant prices, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 1.3%. By sector, primary industry added 1.1941 trillion yuan (+3.8%), secondary industry 11.6135 trillion yuan (+4.9%), and tertiary industry 20.6117 trillion yuan (+5.2%).

Agricultural Output Remains Stable With Solid Livestock Performance

Agricultural value added rose 3.7% year-on-year in Q1. Winter wheat planting remained stable, seedling conditions improved, and spring farming progressed smoothly. Grain planting intentions were broadly steady, with rice stable and corn edging higher.

Meat production reached 26.62 million tonnes, up 4.8%. Pork and poultry output rose 4.2% and 9.3% respectively, while beef and mutton declined 1.4% and 2.0%. Milk production increased 3.4%, while egg production fell 3.1%.

Pig inventories reflected steady supply conditions, with 200.26 million hogs slaughtered (+2.8%) and 423.58 million in stock at quarter-end (+1.5%).

Industrial Production Accelerates, High-Tech Sectors Lead

Industrial output from large enterprises increased 6.1%, accelerating 1.1 percentage points from Q4. Mining rose 6.0%, manufacturing 6.4%, and utilities 4.3%.

High-value segments outperformed: equipment manufacturing rose 8.9% and high-tech manufacturing surged 12.5%, outpacing overall industrial growth.

Product-level gains were strong in advanced manufacturing, including 3D printing equipment (+54.0%), lithium-ion batteries (+40.8%), and industrial robots (+33.2%).

In March, industrial output rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.28% month-on-month. The manufacturing PMI reached 50.4%, up 1.4 points, while expected activity stood at 53.4%. Industrial profits rose 15.2% in January–February (1.0246 trillion yuan).

Services Sector Maintains Solid Expansion

Services value added grew 5.2% in Q1. Strongest gains came from leasing and business services (+12.2%), IT services (+10.6%), finance (+6.5%), transport (+4.3%), and hospitality (+4.3%).

Service production index rose 5.0% in March, led by IT (+11.8%), business services (+10.1%), and finance (+6.7%). Services PMI stood at 50.2%, with expectations at 54.8%, indicating continued expansion in key subsectors.

Consumption Growth Picks Up, Online Retail Expands

Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 12.7695 trillion yuan, up 2.4%, accelerating from Q4. Urban sales rose 2.3%, rural sales 3.1%.

Goods retail increased 2.2%, while catering revenue rose 1.4623 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Strong growth was seen in basic and upgraded categories, including communications equipment (+20.8%) and gold and jewelry (+12.6%).

Service retail grew 5.5%. Online retail sales reached 4.9774 trillion yuan, up 8.0%, with goods online sales 3.1614 trillion yuan and services 1.8160 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.8% of total retail.

Investment Stabilizes; Infrastructure Leads Growth

Fixed asset investment rose 1.7% to 10.2708 trillion yuan, reversing last year's decline. Excluding real estate, investment rose 4.8%.

Infrastructure investment increased 8.9%, manufacturing 4.1%, while real estate investment fell 11.2%. Property sales continued to contract, with floor space 195.25 million square meters down 10.4% and sales value 1.7262 trillion yuan down 16.7%.

High-tech investment rose 7.4%, led by computing equipment (+28.3%), aerospace manufacturing (+19.0%), and information services (+20.9%). Private investment fell 2.2%, though the decline narrowed significantly.

Trade Grows Strongly With Structural Upgrades

Goods trade rose 15.0% to 11.8380 trillion yuan. Exports increased 6.8467 trillion yuan (+11.9%), imports 4.9913 trillion yuan (+19.6%).

General trade grew 9.0%, while trade with Belt and Road partner countries rose 14.2%. Private firms accounted for 57.3% of total trade, with import-export volume up 16.2%. Electromechanical exports rose 18.3%.

March trade increased 4.1046 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year.

Inflation Modest; Producer Prices Show Recovery

Consumer prices rose 0.9% in Q1, with core CPI up 1.2%. Food and beverage prices increased 0.5%, while transport declined 1.1%. Pork prices fell 11.3%, while fresh vegetables and fruit rose 7.6% and 4.3%.

Producer prices fell 0.6%, though the decline narrowed. In March, PPI rose 0.5% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month. Input prices fell 0.5% for the quarter, with March showing renewed gains.

Labour Market Stable; Incomes Continue Rising

Urban surveyed unemployment averaged 5.3%, unchanged from a year earlier. March unemployment stood at 5.4%. Migrant and local labor markets remained broadly stable, with 188.38 million rural workers employed away from home.

Average weekly working hours reached 48.1 hours. 

Income Growth Continues, Rural Outpaces Urban

Disposable income per capita rose 4.9% to 12,782 yuan. Urban income reached 16,549 yuan, while rural income rose to 7,433 yuan.

Wage income and business income both grew 4.9% and 6.6% respectively. Income growth at the median reached 5.0%.

Outlook

Overall, Q1 data indicate improving macroeconomic momentum, stronger emerging growth drivers, and steady recovery across key sectors. However, authorities noted that external uncertainties remain elevated and domestic demand imbalance persists, requiring continued policy support to sustain growth stability.