OPEC Cuts Q2 Oil Demand Forecast, Keeps Full-Year Outlook
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report on April 13, at a time when markets are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, where geopolitical tensions have persisted for nearly two months and continue to raise concerns over global crude supply and trade flows.
Q2 Global Oil Demand Forecast Revised Lower
In its April report, OPEC revised down its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 by 500,000 barrels per day, bringing the expected level to 105.07 million barrels per day. The adjustment was attributed to the impact of ongoing instability in the Middle East.
OPEC described the slowdown as a 'mild and temporary softness' in demand growth, emphasizing that the underlying consumption trend remains intact.
Despite the quarterly revision, the group kept its full-year outlook unchanged.
Full-Year Demand Growth Outlook Maintained
OPEC reaffirmed its 2026 and 2027 global oil demand growth projections in the April report. It continues to expect:
• 2026 global oil demand growth of 1.38 million barrels per day
• 2027 global oil demand growth of 1.34 million barrels per day
The organization said the short-term weakness observed in the second quarter is expected to be offset by stronger demand later in the year.
Middle East Output Falls Sharply Amid Supply Disruption
The report highlighted a significant decline in oil production across the Middle East in March, driven by severe disruptions to shipping flows and export routes, including near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude transport.
OPEC said total crude output from its member states fell by nearly 7.9 million barrels per day, a 27% drop, to 20.79 million barrels per day.
The sharp decline was most pronounced among major producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, which recorded the largest month-on-month production cuts.
Iran also saw a modest decline in output, while Algeria, Congo, Libya, and Gabon similarly reported lower production levels. Nigeria was a notable exception, posting a slight increase in output during the same period.
OPEC said in the report that 'disruptions to shipping activity in the region have raised continued concerns about regional crude supply flows'.
Despite the supply shock, OPEC maintained its global demand outlook, reiterating that any weakness in the second quarter remains temporary and is expected to be offset in subsequent quarters.