China–Japan Flight Cancellations Surge as Safety Concerns Hit Travel

Recent data show a significant escalation in flight cancellations between mainland China and Japan, underscoring growing travel disruptions and weakening outbound tourism sentiment ahead of the 2026 Lunar New Year.

As of January 26, a total of 49 routes scheduled for February 2026 had canceled all flights, an increase compared with January. In January 2026, the cancellation rate for flights from mainland China to Japan reached 47.2%, up 7.8 percentage points from December 2025.

Earlier data provide further context. As of December 22, 2025, 2,195 flights from mainland China to Japan scheduled for January 2026 had been canceled, representing a 40.4% cancellation rate.

On the safety front, media reports on January 26 cited mounting concerns in Japan, including a recent rise in criminal incidents targeting Chinese nationals and multiple earthquakes in certain regions that resulted in injuries. The Japanese government has issued warnings about potential follow-up seismic activity, intensifying safety risks faced by Chinese citizens in the country.

With the Chinese Lunar New Year approaching, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, along with Chinese embassies and consulates in Japan, advised Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in the near term. Those already in Japan were urged to closely monitor local public security conditions and earthquake-related alerts, strengthen personal safety awareness, and enhance self-protection measures. Citizens encountering emergencies were instructed to contact local police promptly and seek assistance from Chinese diplomatic missions.

On the same day, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines each announced on their official websites that tickets issued on or before January 26 for Japan-bound, Japan-originating, or transit flights with departure dates between March 29 and October 24, 2026 (inclusive) would be eligible for free refunds or rebookings. Previously, the free change and refund policy had applied only to flights departing before March 28, 2026.

The 2026 Spring Festival holiday, lasting nine days, is being widely described as the longest Lunar New Year holiday on record, reshaping outbound travel preferences. Data indicate that Thailand has overtaken Japan to reclaim its position as the most popular overseas destination, while South Korea and Malaysia have also emerged as high-value destinations for Chinese travelers during the holiday period.

The extended break has additionally stimulated long-haul travel demand. Trips northward to Norway for aurora viewing and southward to New Zealand for off-season summer travel have driven hotel bookings up by 1.5 times and 2 times, respectively.

Supporting this trend, data confirm that Thailand ranks first among outbound destination countries during the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush. Other Southeast Asian destinations, including Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Laos, have also recorded notable growth in flight capacity.

On November 15, 2025, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines each released free refund and rebooking policies for Japan-bound flights. In the weeks that followed, an increasing number of airlines began canceling services to Japan. One day earlier, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Consular Department had issued a notice advising Chinese citizens to avoid travel to Japan.

Chinese tourism to Japan has continued to cool. On November 19, 2025, media reports noted that negative fallout from controversial remarks related to Taiwan made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had intensified, leading to a marked decline in Chinese visitor numbers. The downturn has affected multiple sectors of Japan's economy, including retail, accommodation, and food services. Chinese tourists had previously been Japan's largest inbound visitor group, accounting for approximately one-quarter of total international arrivals.

According to the Japan Department Stores Association, nationwide duty-free sales at Japanese department stores totaled approximately USD 3.6 billion in 2025, down 12.7% year on year. The decline became more pronounced toward the end of the year. In December 2025, duty-free sales fell to 51.9 billion yen, a 17.1% year-on-year decrease, marking the second consecutive monthly decline amid weak inbound consumption.