Emerging Markets Drive Global Trade Growth in 2026

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, global trade patterns continue to evolve.

While demand across many traditional Western markets has remained relatively subdued, several emerging economies have recorded strong growth in trade with China, creating new sources of momentum across global supply chains.

Official data from China's General Administration of Customs, the Ministry of Commerce, and major trading partners point to several notable developments. India's fertilizer imports from China increased by more than 173%, Poland reported growth in both exports and imports, Brazil maintained strong bilateral trade momentum, and ASEAN continued to be China's largest trading partner.

Across agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology, demand is becoming increasingly diversified, with emerging markets playing a growing role in shaping regional trade flows.

India: Agricultural Demand Drives Fertilizer Imports

Agriculture remains a key sector of India's economy, making fertilizers one of the country's fastest-growing import categories from China.

According to India's Ministry of Commerce, as reported by Business Standard on May 17, fertilizer imports from China reached 5.02 million tonnes during FY2025–26, representing year-on-year growth of more than 173%.

Russia remained India's largest fertilizer supplier with 6.71 million tonnes (+35%), followed by Saudi Arabia (3.43 million tonnes, +23%), Morocco (2.79 million tonnes, +99%), and Oman (1.91 million tonnes, -35%).

The increase reflects strong domestic demand for agricultural inputs, while Chinese suppliers have remained an important sourcing option thanks to large-scale production capacity and the ability to deliver significant volumes within relatively short timeframes.

Poland: Expanding Its Role in European Supply Chains

Despite a challenging economic environment across much of Europe, Poland was among the few countries reporting growth in both exports and imports.

Statistics Poland reported first-quarter 2026 exports of US$109.9 billion, up 15.1% year over year, while imports reached US$110.3 billion, increasing 13.7%. Petroleum product imports rose by nearly 46%, while machinery, electronics, and automotive components remained among the country's largest trade categories.

Beyond domestic demand, Poland continues to strengthen its position as a logistics and distribution hub for Central and Eastern Europe, supporting the movement of goods across the broader EU market.

China's customs data show that trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached RMB 276.82 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 14.3% year over year. Trade with Poland totaled RMB 92.54 billion, increasing 19.7%, the highest among countries in the region.

Its transparent business environment, relatively stable payment conditions, and large industrial procurement volumes continue to make Poland an important market for manufacturers serving Europe.

Africa: Rising Demand Supported by Expanding Market Access

Africa's population exceeded 1.4 billion in 2026, while growing middle-income groups in countries including Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya continue to support increasing demand for consumer goods and infrastructure development.

Building materials, hardware products, household goods, home appliances, and light industrial machinery remain among the product categories experiencing strong demand.

According to China's General Administration of Customs, trade between China and Africa reached RMB 646.56 billion during the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 23.7% year over year, while imports from Africa rose 14.6%.

From May 1, 2026, China expanded zero-tariff treatment to products from 53 African countries with diplomatic relations. The policy is expected to facilitate bilateral trade while helping reduce import costs for a range of consumer and industrial products.

ASEAN: Sustained Regional Trade Growth

ASEAN continued to rank as China's largest trading partner in the first quarter of 2026.

Total trade reached RMB 1.97 trillion, up 15.4% year over year and accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade. Exports increased 17.5% to RMB 1.23 trillion, while imports rose 12.1% to RMB 736.64 billion.

Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia remained the three largest ASEAN trading partners.

Key export categories included machinery, electronic components, automotive parts, and new energy equipment, while imports primarily consisted of agricultural products, mineral resources, and flat-panel display modules.

The continued implementation of the upgraded China–ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 framework alongside RCEP is providing additional institutional support for regional trade and supply-chain integration.

Brazil: Manufacturing and Automotive Trade Continue to Expand

As Latin America's largest economy, Brazil maintained solid trade momentum with China during 2026.

According to Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, exports to China reached US$11.61 billion in April 2026, up 32.5% year over year, while imports from China increased 20.7% to US$6.054 billion.

During the first four months of 2026, exports to China totaled US$35.61 billion, representing annual growth of 25.4%.

Brazilian statistics also show that bilateral trade reached US$171 billion in 2025, an increase of 8.2%, with China remaining Brazil's largest trading partner for the seventeenth consecutive year.

Manufactured products continued to account for a significant share of imports from China, with automobiles standing out as one of the fastest-growing categories.

The Brazilian National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers reported that Chinese vehicles accounted for 47.7% of Brazil's imported vehicle sales between January and April 2026, totaling approximately 80,100 units, up 81.6% year over year.

In April, BYD ranked first in Brazil's monthly retail vehicle sales for the first time with 14,914 units sold, while new energy vehicles reached a record 18.3% share of the country's light vehicle market.

Brazil also introduced temporary tariff exemptions on 191 imported products, including heavy machinery and key electronic components, creating additional opportunities for industrial trade.

A More Targeted Pattern of Trade Growth

Recent trade data suggest that emerging markets are becoming increasingly important contributors to global trade growth.

Each market presents distinct demand characteristics. India continues to generate strong demand for agricultural inputs, Poland and Brazil remain important destinations for industrial manufacturing, while ASEAN and African markets benefit from expanding regional trade and supportive policy frameworks.

According to China's General Administration of Customs, total goods trade reached RMB 11.84 trillion during the first quarter of 2026, up 15% year over year. Exports increased 11.9% to RMB 6.85 trillion, imports rose 19.6% to RMB 4.99 trillion, and trade with Belt and Road partner countries reached RMB 6.06 trillion, an increase of 14.2%.

As regional demand patterns continue to diversify, emerging markets are becoming an increasingly important part of global trade, creating new opportunities across supply chains, manufacturing, and international commerce.