Global Shipping's Methanol Surge Drives Alternative Fuel Boom in 2025

According to industry statistics, the global shipping sector significantly accelerated its transition to alternative fuels in 2025. Over the full year, a total of 499 alternative-fuel vessels were contracted and 484 vessels were delivered, representing a combined 74.9 million gross tons, or approximately 40% of total global newbuild contracting and deliveries.

Data compiled from year-end and year-beginning comparisons by Clarksons show that methanol-fueled vessels accounted for around 140 contracted and delivered ships in 2025, while ammonia-fueled vessels recorded six new orders. Overall, hydrogen-based fuels — primarily methanol and ammonia — represented approximately 15% of all newly deployed alternative-fuel vessels during the year.

As of the end of 2025, the global deployment of hydrogen-based fuel vessels presents a clear picture of accelerating scale-up, led overwhelmingly by methanol propulsion.

Methanol-Fueled Vessels: Fleet Expansion Enters the Commercial Phase

In 2025 alone, 140 methanol-fueled vessels were added globally. By 31 December 2025, the total number of vessels explicitly designed or converted to operate on methanol — including vessels in operation, on order, under construction, or under retrofit — reached 439 units, up from 300 at the start of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47%.

Of these, 334 vessels (76%) remain in the order, construction, or conversion pipeline, while 105 vessels (24%) are already in active service. The ratio of vessels on order versus those in operation stands at 3:1, a structure that clearly indicates methanol propulsion has moved beyond technical validation and into a phase driven by regulatory expectations and long-term fuel demand planning.

Methanol Fuel Demand: A Clearly Forming Demand Wave

The most significant implication of this fleet expansion lies in its fuel demand outlook. If all 439 methanol-fueled vessels are fully deployed and operating on methanol, annual methanol demand is estimated at approximately 11.07 million tonnes.

Of this total, vessels currently on order account for 8.46 million tonnes per year, or 76% of total demand, while vessels already in operation account for 2.61 million tonnes, or 24%. Notably, the potential green methanol demand from ordered vessels alone is more than 3.2 times that of the current operating fleet.

For green methanol producers, port bunkering operators, and fuel traders, this represents a clear and imminent market signal: a large-scale demand surge is no longer hypothetical, but already embedded in confirmed vessel pipelines.

Vessel Type Concentration: Container Ships Dominate Methanol Adoption

The methanol-fueled fleet exhibits a highly concentrated vessel-type structure, with container ships forming a clear single-pole dominance. This trend is driven by two factors: the strong decarbonization commitments of leading liner companies such as Maersk, and the container sector's stable route networks and stronger ability to pass fuel costs through supply chains.

Among the 439 methanol-fueled vessels, 219 are container ships, accounting for exactly 50% of the total fleet — meaning one out of every two methanol-powered vessels is a container ship. More critically, these 219 container vessels represent an estimated annual methanol demand of 8.97 million tonnes, or 81% of total fleet demand, firmly establishing container shipping as the core driver of methanol fuel consumption.

Delivery Timeline: Demand Growth Peaks Between 2026 and 2027

Deployment schedules show a concentrated wave of vessel deliveries already locked in through 2031, pointing to a steep upward trajectory in green methanol demand.

Of the 439 vessels, only 50 ships (11%) had been delivered or confirmed for delivery by 2024 or earlier, corresponding to annual demand of 1.06 million tonnes, reflecting the industry's pilot and early adoption phase.

The core delivery window spans 2025–2029, during which 378 vessels — 86% of the total fleet — are scheduled for delivery, bringing an additional 9.85 million tonnes of annual methanol demand. Within this period:

• 2025: 58 vessels, demand of 1.66 million tonnes

• 2026: 125 vessels, demand of 2.72 million tonnes (the single-year peak)

• 2027: 87 vessels, demand of 2.38 million tonnes

Between early 2025 and the end of 2027, global shipping's annual green methanol demand is expected to increase by approximately 6.75 million tonnes, representing a 640% surge within just three years. This steep curve poses an immediate challenge for fuel production, logistics, and bunkering infrastructure.

Market Structure: COSCO Shipping Leads, Concentration Intensifies

Across key metrics — including total vessel count, deadweight tonnage, and fuel demand — COSCO Shipping has established a decisive lead. With 59 methanol-fueled vessels, total deadweight tonnage of 10.41 million tonnes, and annual methanol demand of 2.40 million tonnes, COSCO alone accounts for nearly one-quarter of global methanol-fueled shipping demand, giving it substantial influence over the emerging green methanol supply chain.

Meanwhile, A.P. Moller–Maersk continues a more measured strategy. Of its 26 owned methanol vessels, 19 are already in operation, making it the company with the largest active methanol-powered fleet. Including joint ventures and chartered vessels, Maersk has deployed 38 methanol-fueled ships, which, once fully operational, will require approximately 1.66 million tonnes of methanol annually.

Other major carriers — including ONE, Evergreen Marine, and Hapag-Lloyd — have adopted more aggressive ordering strategies, securing fleet competitiveness through large-scale newbuild programs, with 28, 28, and 14 vessels on order, respectively.

Overall, market concentration is pronounced. The leading players — COSCO Shipping, Maersk, ONE, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen, and CMA CGM — together account for over 7.17 million tonnes of annual methanol demand, nearly 65% of the global total. This concentration strengthens collective bargaining power for major carriers, while simultaneously requiring green methanol projects to secure long-term offtake agreements from these top-tier customers to achieve financial viability.

Ammonia-Fueled Vessels: Early Stage, Led by Tankers

In contrast, ammonia-fueled shipping remains at an early development stage. By the end of 2025, 49 ammonia-fueled vessels had been deployed globally, 46 of which remain on order or under construction, with total deadweight tonnage of approximately 3.65 million tonnes. Only three vessels — primarily functional units such as tugs and offshore platforms — are currently in operation.

Total projected ammonia fuel demand from these vessels is estimated at 626,000 tonnes per year, of which 617,000 tonnes come from vessels on order and 9,000 tonnes from vessels already in service.

Fleet composition differs sharply from methanol vessels. Of the 49 ships, 27 are tankers, representing 1.21 million tonnes of deadweight and annual ammonia demand of 460,000 tonnes. Bulk carriers, though fewer at 11 vessels, account for 2.3 million tonnes of deadweight and 150,000 tonnes of annual demand, while car carriers and container ships remain marginal.

Ammonia Delivery Schedule and Market Leadership

Between 2003 and 2024, only four ammonia-fueled vessels were delivered, all pilot-scale units. No ammonia-fueled vessels entered service in 2025. True batch deliveries are scheduled for 2026–2028, with:

• 2026: 19 vessels, ~280,000 tonnes/year of new demand

• 2027: 17 vessels, ~250,000 tonnes/year

• 2028: 7 vessels, ~120,000 tonnes/year

By company, Belgian Maritime Group (CMB) is the undisputed leader, accounting for 13 vessels, 2.17 million tonnes of deadweight, and 188,000 tonnes of annual ammonia demand. Through CMB.Tech's partnership with US-listed bulk carrier Golden Ocean, CMB's ammonia fleet is primarily tanker-based, with two bulk carriers included. In December, CMB signed a 158,000-tonne green ammonia supply agreement with China Energy Engineering Hydrogen Energy's Songyuan project, which is scheduled to commence production in January 2026.

Tianjin Southwest Maritime ranks second, with seven ammonia-fueled tankers, 200,000 tonnes of deadweight, and annual demand of 120,000 tonnes. Other companies typically operate fleets of one to four vessels, with significantly smaller demand footprints.

Overall, while ammonia propulsion remains in a formative phase, CMB has emerged as the primary catalyst driving fleet expansion, positioning itself at the center of the future ammonia-fueled shipping ecosystem.