Hormuz Strait Disruption Threatens China–Middle East Chemical Trade

The recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted energy exports from many Middle Eastern countries, raising concerns across global commodity and chemical markets. As one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz serves as the primary export route for oil and gas from the Gulf region. Its disruption not only threatens energy flows but also poses broader risks to international trade between the Middle East and global partners, including China.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

According to industry data, most Middle Eastern energy exports depend heavily on the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia transports the vast majority of its crude oil through the strait, with only limited volumes shipped via pipelines. Iraq exports nearly all of its oil through this route, while the United Arab Emirates relies on the strait for most of its crude oil and natural gas shipments. Kuwait's oil exports are also almost entirely dependent on the passage.

Qatar, the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), ships around 90% of its LNG through the strait. Meanwhile, Bahrain and Oman also rely heavily on this maritime corridor for their oil and gas exports. As a result, any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have far-reaching implications not only for global energy supply but also for broader trade flows between the Middle East and other regions.

China's Heavy Reliance on Middle Eastern Chemical Imports

Trade data indicates that China imports more than 500 types of chemical products from the Middle East, covering a wide range of commodities. Among these, crude oil, natural gas, methanol, and propane each exceed 10 million tons in import volume. Crude oil imports from the Middle East alone account for approximately 45% of China's total crude oil imports.

In terms of import dependence, several specialty chemicals — including artemether, lumefantrine, p-isopropylaniline, ciprofloxacin intermediate cyclopropyl fluoro derivatives, cresol salts, dimethylaniline, and aluminum chloride — are entirely sourced from the Middle East, representing 100% of China's imports for these products. Although total volumes remain relatively small, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely disrupt supply chains for these niche chemicals.

Other products with extremely high dependence on Middle Eastern imports — exceeding 90% of China's total import volume — include ethanolamine derivatives, m-phenoxybenzyl alcohol, calcined coke, sodium acetate, phenylacetic acid, monoammonium phosphate, ethylenediamine, hydroiodic acid, diethylene glycol, polyethylene glycol, piperidine, and 2-phenylethanol. Any disruption in maritime traffic through the strait could significantly affect supply for these products.

Meanwhile, several bulk chemicals and petrochemical feedstocks — including methanol, butane, borax, ethylene glycol, styrene, phosphate rock, naphtha, propane, boric acid, synthetic ammonia, polypropylene, and marine fuel oil — are imported from the Middle East at both large volumes and high dependency ratios. For example, more than 76% of China's methanol imports originate from the region. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely have long-term and structural impacts on these supply chains.

China's Chemical Exports to the Middle East Also at Risk

China's chemical exports to Middle Eastern countries are also substantial. Trade statistics show that China exports more than 520 categories of chemical products to the region. Among them, the largest export volumes — each exceeding 100,000 tons — include melamine, artificial graphite, thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), organic silicone DMC, ethylene tar resin, non-ionic surfactants, trimethylolpropane (TMP), monosodium glutamate, C5 petroleum resin, spandex, soda ash, and graphite electrodes.

Some products are almost entirely exported to Middle Eastern markets. Cytosine, p-chlorobenzyl cyanide, m-xylene, and p-chlorotoluene are exported exclusively to Middle Eastern countries, making the region their sole export destination. Although total volumes are relatively small, a prolonged disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly affect companies involved in these trades.

Several other chemicals — including n-octanol, 2,6-diethylaniline, ethylbenzene, ethanolamine derivatives, 2-naphthol, 2,6-methyl-ethyl aniline, regenerated filament yarn, viscose filament yarn, catechol, m-cresol, pinene, and methocarbamate — have export ratios to the Middle East exceeding 80%. For these products, the region represents a critical consumption market. If shipping disruptions persist, exporters may need to rapidly diversify into alternative markets.

In addition, a group of chemicals with both large export volumes and high export dependency ratios — including PTA, diammonium phosphate, PVC, ammonium sulfate, polyester chips, diesel, photovoltaic glass, kerosene, sodium sulfate, calcined coke, glacial acetic acid, polyethylene glycol, tires, sulfuric acid, chlorinated paraffin, and silica — each exceed 500,000 tons in exports to the Middle East. Any long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could therefore create significant market uncertainty for these sectors.

Potential Structural Impact on Bilateral Chemical Trade

Market analysts believe that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would create a multi-layered disruption to chemical trade between China and the Middle East. On the import side, the most critical risks are concentrated in energy and basic chemical feedstocks, which are essential for China's industrial supply chains. On the export side, the impact would be most severe for chemical products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern demand.

In the short term, such disruptions could lead to supply-demand mismatches and price volatility across several chemical markets. Over the longer term, they could accelerate structural adjustments in China's chemical trade, including diversification of import sources and expansion into new export markets.

Strategic Response: Diversification and Supply Chain Resilience

To mitigate risks on the import side, industry experts suggest accelerating procurement diversification and reducing reliance on single-region supply sources. Companies are advised to secure long-term contracts, build strategic inventories, and explore alternative raw materials for products that are currently fully dependent on Middle Eastern imports.

On the export side, firms heavily dependent on Middle Eastern markets may need to expand into Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to reduce market concentration risks. Optimizing order structures and diversifying customer bases could help stabilize export performance under uncertain trade conditions.

In addition, companies may need to redesign logistics strategies by preparing alternative shipping routes and transport methods. Strengthening inventory management, improving cash-flow resilience, and reinforcing supply chain flexibility will also be essential to mitigate the cascading impacts of potential maritime disruptions.

Overall, stabilizing imports, expanding export markets, reducing regional dependence, and strengthening supply chain resilience will be critical for China's chemical industry if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.