Super El Niño Threat Raises Global Agriculture Risk for 2026-27

On June 11, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center formally issued an El Niño Advisory, declaring that "El Niño conditions are present." At the same time, NOAA's probability assessment indicated a 63% chance that the event could intensify into an "extremely strong" El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially ranking among the most powerful episodes recorded since modern observations began in 1950.

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are even more aggressive. The median ensemble projection suggests that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region could reach +3°C by December, while some scenarios point to anomalies exceeding +4°C.

The significance of those projections is difficult to overstate. The strongest El Niño event in the modern observational era occurred in 2015–16, when the Niño 3.4 anomaly peaked at approximately +2.6°C. Should current forecasts materialize, the 2026–27 event would surpass that benchmark by at least 15%, pushing into territory without precedent in the instrumental record.

Early and Unusually Strong Signals

Climate indicators this year have emerged earlier and with unusual clarity.

From an oceanographic perspective, a powerful downwelling Kelvin wave is propagating eastward across the equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperature anomalies between 50 and 250 meters below the surface have locally reached +8°C.

In May, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University assigned a 98% probability to El Niño conditions developing during May–July 2026, with probabilities remaining between 97% and 98% in subsequent seasons. Meanwhile, the Niño 1+2 region off the coast of Peru has already recorded anomalies of +2.1°C.

ECMWF's probability tracker surged from 22% in March to 80% in April and reached 100% by May. Former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue described the situation as a "red alert." In a report published on June 15, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) stated that El Niño this year is "almost certain" and is "highly likely to become an extremely strong, or even unprecedented, event."

Forecast uncertainty remains significant. Historically, seasonal ENSO forecasts become less reliable after spring, and the most extreme scenarios may not be realized. Yet this uncertainty does little to alter the broader outlook: a strong or stronger El Niño event appears highly likely to affect global agricultural systems during the second half of 2026.

Lessons From Previous Super El Niño Events

El Niño is not a new phenomenon, but each exceptionally strong episode has left a lasting mark on global agriculture.

1997–98: Severe Droughts and Rice Losses

The 1997–98 El Niño reached a Niño 3.4 peak near +2.3°C and remains one of the strongest events of the twentieth century.

Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand experienced severe drought. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), crop production in parts of Central America and the Caribbean declined by approximately 15% to 20% in 1997 compared with the previous year, with some countries suffering even greater losses.

In South America, abnormal rainfall reduced wheat planting areas in Brazil and Argentina. Across Southeast Asia, the event resulted in an estimated loss of roughly 15 million tonnes of rice.

2015–16: Record Intensity and Widespread Impacts

The 2015–16 El Niño reached approximately +2.6°C, the highest level in the modern record.

India's corn production fell by around 4%, while rice output declined by about 1%. Rice markets across Southeast Asia tightened, driving higher prices and prompting India to impose export restrictions on multiple occasions.

Southern Africa suffered severe drought, while hydropower generation from the Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe dropped sharply, contributing to broader energy shortages across the region.

2023–24: Heat Amplification and Agricultural Stress

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ranked the 2023–24 event among the five strongest El Niño episodes on record.

Combined with ongoing global warming, the event contributed to making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded and intensified agricultural drought conditions in parts of East Africa and South Asia.

A large-scale assessment published in Nature Communications in 2014 found that El Niño events typically shift global corn, rice, and wheat yields by between -4.3% and +0.8% relative to normal conditions. Soybean production, however, tends to benefit from improved rainfall in parts of the Americas, with gains ranging from roughly 2.1% to 5.4%.

The data highlight a central reality of El Niño: outcomes depend less on overall event strength than on where crops are grown and which commodities are involved.

Regional Agricultural Risks in 2026

Historical patterns provide an imperfect but useful guide to potential agricultural risks.

India and South Asia

India accounts for roughly 24% of global rice production, and the relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO remains strongly negative. El Niño years are typically associated with weaker summer monsoon rainfall.

The strong El Niño events of 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24 each triggered food export restrictions in India, transmitting pressure to rice-importing nations worldwide.

FAO warnings issued this year identify South and Southeast Asia as regions facing some of the highest drought risks, with certain areas confronting drought probabilities above 50%.

Southeast Asia

Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia all fall within historically high-risk zones during major El Niño events.

Palm oil is particularly vulnerable. Malaysia and Indonesia dominate global production, and both countries have experienced significant disruptions during past strong El Niño episodes.

Cotton and sugar crops are also considered highly exposed.

Australia

Australia is widely regarded as one of the world's most ENSO-sensitive wheat producers.

During El Niño years, rainfall deficits frequently develop across Queensland and New South Wales, posing direct threats to spring wheat and barley production.

Brazil

Brazil presents a more complex picture.

El Niño often brings additional rainfall to southern Brazil, supporting soybean development. However, excessive precipitation can reduce coffee quality and increase disease pressure in certain crops.

According to the JRC, stronger El Niño scenarios could drive higher global durum wheat prices, while soybean and hard red winter wheat prices may weaken if favorable conditions persist in key American growing regions.

East Africa and the Sahel

Unlike Southeast Asia, East Africa and the Sahel often receive increased rainfall during El Niño years.

Yet greater rainfall does not automatically translate into larger harvests. In regions facing soil degradation and infrastructure constraints, heavy rains can trigger flooding and erosion instead.

FAO has already issued warnings for Somalia, while the JRC's INFORM Warning system classifies several Central African countries as facing elevated humanitarian risks.

China

The impact of El Niño on China has historically varied by region.

Southern China often experiences above-normal rainfall, while drought risks tend to increase across northern and northeastern provinces.

During the 1997–98 event, severe flooding affected southern China while northeastern regions endured significant drought, damaging agricultural production.

Implications for the Agrochemical Industry

The relationship between climate extremes and agrochemical demand is far from straightforward.

Demand-Side Contraction

During drought years, farmers often reduce planting intensity and cut discretionary spending. Agrochemical purchases are frequently among the first expenses to be scaled back.

During the 1997–98 Southeast Asian El Niño, pesticide demand weakened noticeably in Indonesia and the Philippines due to both reduced planted acreage and declining farm incomes.

Shifting Pest and Disease Patterns

Extreme rainfall can increase disease outbreaks in some regions, while drought conditions may encourage pest migration and population surges.

Historically, El Niño years have been associated with increased activity among migratory pests, including locusts. During the 2023–24 event, unusually high temperatures combined with El Niño conditions contributed to elevated populations of whiteflies, mites, and other pests across several tropical markets.

Inventory and Distribution Challenges

Agricultural supply chains often require one to two quarters to absorb inventory imbalances following extreme weather events.

In Brazil, the inventory correction cycle of 2023–24 coincided with localized El Niño-driven heavy rainfall. In some soybean-growing areas, diseases such as Asian soybean rust intensified due to persistently humid conditions.

For Chinese agrochemical exporters, this means demand signals may diverge sharply across markets during the same season.

Combined Pressure From Fertilizer Markets

Another factor complicating the outlook is logistics.

The arrival of El Niño in 2026 coincides with tighter shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz linked to Middle East tensions, placing additional pressure on urea and phosphate fertilizer exports.

In a report published in March, UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan argued that "nitrogen fertilizer shortages may not be the biggest threat to agricultural prices this year — a super El Niño may be."

Planning for Risk Amid Growing Uncertainty

Climate models become less reliable under extreme conditions. A Niño 3.4 anomaly of +4°C has never been observed during the instrumental era.

The closest historical comparison may be the 1877–78 El Niño, which contributed to widespread famine across multiple regions. However, the absence of modern-quality observational data limits direct comparisons.

As a result, risk planning may be better anchored around the currently projected "strong-to-extremely-strong" scenario rather than the most extreme tail-risk outcomes. Such a scenario is already severe and supported by substantial historical precedent.

Another important uncertainty concerns agricultural resilience.

China has significantly expanded investments in agricultural weather forecasting and irrigation infrastructure over recent years, improving drought preparedness compared with the late 1990s. India has similarly strengthened irrigation coverage across major rice-growing regions since the Green Revolution, providing greater protection against monsoon variability.

Even so, historical evidence points toward a clear direction of risk.

The 2026 El Niño has likely already begun. The remaining questions concern its eventual peak intensity and whether ocean-atmosphere interactions could propel the event toward, or beyond, existing records.

For global agriculture, this signals a prolonged window of structural uncertainty extending from the second half of 2026 into the spring of 2027. For the agrochemical sector, it represents both a test of regional demand resilience and a challenge to supply-chain stability.

History suggests that the agricultural consequences of super El Niño events often emerge with a lag of six to twelve months. The most significant production losses frequently become visible only after the climatic peak has passed.

That raises a critical possibility for markets: current prices may not yet fully reflect the scale of the risk ahead.