U.S. Strike on Venezuela: Implications for China's Oil and Chemical Trade

At the start of 2026, the United States carried out airstrikes against Venezuela and removed President Nicolás Maduro, subsequently announcing that it would take control of the country and allow U.S. oil companies to enter its energy sector. Former President Donald Trump said the United States would become deeply involved in Venezuela's oil industry, marking a dramatic escalation in U.S. engagement with the South American nation.

Venezuela, located in northern South America, covers approximately 916,400 square kilometers and is rich in mineral resources. It is one of the world's major oil-producing and exporting countries, with proven crude oil reserves estimated at 303 billion barrels, accounting for about 17 percent of global reserves — the largest in the world. However, due to prolonged economic challenges and the latest developments, Venezuela's current crude oil output stands at around 1 million barrels per day, representing roughly 0.8 percent of global production, far below the approximately 3.5 million barrels per day recorded two decades ago.

Beyond oil, Venezuela holds substantial reserves of other resources. Proven natural gas reserves total about 567 million cubic meters, or 3.3 percent of the global total, ranking eighth worldwide. Gold reserves are estimated at 792 tonnes, the fourth largest globally. Bauxite resources amount to approximately 3.48 billion tonnes, with proven reserves of 1.33 billion tonnes, ranking third in the world. The country also possesses around 39 million tonnes of titanium reserves and 490,000 tonnes of nickel, underscoring its broad mineral wealth.

Analysts describe the Venezuela situation as a 'black swan' event that has delivered a short-term shock to global oil markets. Venezuela's oil exports are facing near paralysis, and production is shrinking rapidly, creating immediate disruptions. Over the longer term, however, the impact on global crude markets is expected to be limited, given Venezuela's already constrained output, the possibility of global oil oversupply, and generally weak demand.

Market observers note that the U.S. military action could have lasting consequences for Venezuela's daily economic operations, potentially reshaping its imports and exports of chemical products. Venezuela maintains notable chemical trade ties with China. In 2024, China imported more than 3 million tonnes of chemical products from Venezuela, with a total value exceeding USD 1.1 billion, while exporting over 220,000 tonnes to Venezuela, worth more than USD 280 million.

An analysis of China–Venezuela chemical trade in 2024 shows that China's major chemical exports to Venezuela included polyester chips, tires, calcined coke, polypropylene, polyethylene, PVC profiles, and polyethylene glycol. Even the largest export item, polyester chips, totaled only 35,300 tonnes, accounting for just 0.6 percent of China's total exports of that product.

By contrast, tall oil fatty acids represented a relatively higher export share. China exported several hundred tonnes of tall oil fatty acids to Venezuela in 2024, accounting for more than 6 percent of China's total exports of the product. Derived from tall oil, a byproduct of the pulp and paper industry, tall oil fatty acids are widely used in lubricant additives, surfactants, cosmetics, and industrial chemicals, primarily serving Venezuela's petrochemical, paper, and agricultural sectors.

China also exported 700 tonnes of n-propanol to Venezuela in 2024, representing 4.88 percent of its total exports of the product, the second-highest export share. N-propanol is widely used in lithium battery electrolytes, pharmaceuticals, coatings, and food packaging. China is a major global producer with a complete industrial chain, making it one of the world's key suppliers.

On the import side, crude oil remains China's largest chemical-related import from Venezuela. In 2024, China imported more than 1.49 million tonnes of Venezuelan crude oil, mostly heavy crude, accounting for 0.27 percent of China's total crude imports. Despite being the largest import category, the share is small, meaning that even a complete halt in Venezuelan crude exports would have no material impact on China's overall crude supply or refining industry.

Venezuelan crude is predominantly heavy oil. While Venezuela holds large reserves, global heavy oil production is led by Canada and the United States, and Venezuela's limited development capacity restricts its influence on global supply. China's refining system is largely designed for full-range crude processing, with some refiners favoring heavier grades, suggesting limited structural impact. However, Venezuelan heavy crude is a key feedstock for asphalt, and the disruption could affect independent refiners in Shandong Province and markets in southern China.

In addition, China imported more than 760,000 tonnes of uncalcined petroleum coke from Venezuela in 2024, accounting for 5.72 percent of China's total imports of the product, making it the largest import by share among chemical products. Uncalcined petroleum coke is mainly used to produce calcined coke and other carbon materials. China sources this material primarily from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, where supplies are abundant, limiting the expected impact.

China also imported over 380,000 tonnes of methanol from Venezuela in 2024, accounting for 2.85 percent of total imports. With China's domestic methanol capacity continuing to expand, domestic production can largely meet demand, and the small share imported from Venezuela is unlikely to have long-term effects.

Analysts emphasize that Venezuela, as the country with the world's largest oil reserves, has been an important source of heavy crude for China. Even before the latest events, Chinese companies had begun adjusting their supply chains. China National Petroleum Corporation suspended Venezuelan crude imports from March 2025 and sought alternatives from Russia and Iran. Shandong's independent refiners, which focus heavily on asphalt production, have had higher demand for Venezuelan heavy crude and may face some pressure as a result.

Overall, both China's imports from and exports to Venezuela in chemical products remain limited in variety and scale. As a result, the latest developments in Venezuela are not expected to bring about profound changes to China's chemical trade structure or its broader import and export landscape.