China Polyester Capacity and Output Continue to Rise, Exports Remain Strong

From 2021 to 2025, China's polyester industry has maintained a clear trajectory of steady expansion, underpinned by sustained growth in both production capacity and output. In recent years, the sector has recorded notable annual increases, supported by relatively stable downstream demand from textiles, packaging and related applications. In particular, the rapid development of industrial polyester and high-performance fibres has provided additional impetus. At the same time, leading domestic producers have strengthened their global competitiveness through technological upgrading and scaled operations, continuously optimising cost structures and product portfolios.

Data show that the industry's expansion has been both consistent and progressive. In 2021, China's polyester production capacity stood at 67.325 million tonnes, with actual output reaching 57.13 million tonnes. In 2022, capacity increased to 71.37 million tonnes, while output rose modestly to 57.78 million tonnes. Growth accelerated significantly in 2023, when capacity exceeded the 80 million tonne mark, reaching 81.76 million tonnes, and output climbed sharply to 66.44 million tonnes. This momentum carried into 2024, with capacity further expanding to 87.31 million tonnes and output increasing to 73.79 million tonnes.

In 2025, the industry's growth momentum is expected to remain stable. Total capacity is projected to approach 90 million tonnes, reaching 89.825 million tonnes, while output is forecast to rise to approximately 77.7 million tonnes. The orderly release of new capacity has provided a solid foundation for output growth, and the simultaneous increase in production has effectively absorbed additional capacity. This reflects continued support from downstream markets and indicates that the overall operation of the industry remains sound.

According to relevant data, China's polyester industry in 2025 is set to advance steadily under a 'triple high' profile characterised by high output, high export orientation and high operating rates. Annual output is projected at around 77.7 million tonnes, reinforcing China's position as the world's leading polyester production base. At the same time, the import-export structure shows a pronounced 'scissors gap': exports are expected to reach 13.3283 million tonnes, while imports are estimated at only 38,700 tonnes. This substantial net export volume highlights the strong international competitiveness of Chinese polyester products, while also pointing to the industry's significant reliance on external demand. As a result, changes in the global trade environment are likely to have a direct impact on the sector. Supporting this high level of output, the industry's average operating rate is projected to remain at a robust 88.29%, indicating that downstream demand continues to effectively absorb supply and that overall operational efficiency remains within a healthy range, with no evident large-scale idling of capacity.

On the demand side, China's domestic consumption of major polyester products in 2025 is expected to show a distinctly differentiated pattern. Polyester filament yarn is projected to remain the dominant product, with apparent consumption reaching 37.1914 million tonnes, reflecting its extensive use across textiles and apparel, home textiles and industrial textiles. Polyester bottle flakes are expected to follow, with domestic demand of approximately 10.9697 million tonnes, mainly supported by stable demand from the soft drinks and packaging sectors. Demand for polyester staple fibre and polyester chips is projected to be relatively smaller, at 6.8569 million tonnes and 6.4088 million tonnes respectively, primarily serving textiles, nonwovens and downstream polyester recycling industries. Overall, the demand structure indicates that the textile supply chain and the packaging sector remain the core drivers of China's polyester consumption, while different product categories occupy distinct positions depending on the scale and growth potential of their respective end-use markets.