France-Backed Report Urges EU 30% Tariff or Euro Devaluation

A strategic report released on February 9 by a French government advisory body has called on the European Union to consider unprecedented measures — including a blanket 30% tariff on Chinese goods or a sharp devaluation of the euro against the renminbi — to address the growing influx of low-cost Chinese imports into the European market.

The report, titled L'industrie européenne face au rouleau compresseur chinois ('European Industry Facing the Chinese Steamroller'), was published by France's High Commission for Strategy and Planning, an institution that reports directly to the French prime minister and provides long-term guidance on public policy. The authorship team includes former French ministers responsible for European affairs.

According to the report, China's industrial sector has entered a new phase. Rather than focusing solely on low-end manufacturing, Chinese firms are now gaining market share in higher-value segments through technological upgrades and sustained cost advantages. Sectors highlighted include electric vehicles, batteries, machine tools, pharmaceuticals, robotics and other industries historically dominated by European producers.

The study finds that Chinese products are typically manufactured at costs 30% to 40% lower than those in Europe while offering comparable — and in some cases superior — quality. In certain industries, the cost gap is even wider.

To offset this structural disadvantage, the report proposes two so-called 'paradigm shifts'.

The first option would be the introduction of an across-the-board 30% tariff on all Chinese imports — an unprecedented move that would apply to nearly all products rather than targeting specific sectors through traditional trade defense mechanisms.

The second option would involve a depreciation of the euro by 20% to 30% against the renminbi, thereby increasing the relative price of Chinese goods in Europe. The report acknowledges that such a currency adjustment would be difficult to engineer, requiring international coordination and potentially resembling historical agreements such as the Plaza Accord. However, it argues that currency realignment would be a more 'natural' response than tariffs.

The report also highlights the scale of competitive pressure facing Europe's largest economies. It estimates that one-quarter of French exports and as much as two-thirds of German production are exposed to competition from Chinese manufacturers.

Existing EU trade defense instruments — which typically rely on lengthy anti-dumping investigations — are described as insufficient under current conditions. The report calls for a 'massive and vital' shift in European policy to address what it characterizes as a systemic challenge.

While noting that artificially weakening the euro or strengthening the renminbi would be more difficult than imposing tariffs, the report stresses that tariffs themselves would also be politically complex, requiring majority support from EU member states.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said last week that, if necessary, France could place currency market volatility on the agenda during its presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) this year.

The proposal comes amid broader EU efforts to strengthen trade defenses. Since 2025, the European Union has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with France playing a leading role in pushing for tougher measures.

Although the report remains a policy recommendation rather than an official EU decision, it has already sparked wide debate and is widely seen as a strong signal of France's intention to accelerate 'de-risking' strategies and upgrade trade defense policies at the European level.