Global Oil Inventories Near 8-Year Low, Supply Risks Rise

Global oil inventories are approaching their lowest level in eight years, according to a recent research report from Goldman Sachs, underscoring growing concerns that uneven stock depletion and regional imbalances could trigger fuel shortages in certain markets.

The bank noted that total global petroleum inventories — including onshore and offshore crude storage as well as refined products — currently cover approximately 101 days of global demand. By the end of May, this coverage is projected to fall further to around 98 days.

For refined petroleum products, inventories have tightened even more sharply. Prior to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global stocks of refined fuels were sufficient to meet about 50 days of demand. That figure has now declined to roughly 45 days.

Goldman Sachs said that while headline inventory levels remain above historical lows, the aggregate figures mask significant regional and product-specific shortages. The report highlighted that disruptions linked to constrained logistics through the Strait of Hormuz could exacerbate imbalances, even if global totals appear relatively stable.

According to analysts, rapidly declining inventories of petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas, along with aviation fuel, are increasing the risk of supply shortages in select economies. These pressures are expected to intensify as regional distribution remains uneven.

Separately, Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly concerning from a supply perspective. He emphasized that the key issue is not oil prices, but physical access to fuel.

'The question is not price, it is availability,' Wirth said, adding that supply disruptions could begin to spread through the broader system in the coming weeks.