Global Shipping Faces Dual Strait Risks Amid Rising Tensions

Two Critical Maritime Routes Face Simultaneous Pressure

In recent weeks, global shipping markets have focused heavily on security concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. However, as Houthi forces issued warnings against Saudi maritime activities, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, has also come under significant pressure.

Currently, the two major maritime passages connecting global energy transportation and trade networks are experiencing declining commercial shipping capacity:

• Strait Of Hormuz: Oil tanker and LNG vessel traffic has dropped significantly, with some shipowners voluntarily suspending voyages.

• Bab El-Mandeb Strait: Following Houthi announcements of maritime restrictions targeting Saudi Arabia, multiple commercial vessels have begun adjusting routes.

This development indicates that global shipping is no longer facing a single regional risk. Instead, both energy transportation and east-west trade routes are coming under pressure simultaneously.

Strait Of Hormuz And Bab El-Mandeb Become Dual Bottlenecks

The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait each control critical points in global energy transportation and international trade.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, accounting for around 20% of global petroleum liquid consumption. The waterway also handles significant LNG transportation volumes.

Meanwhile, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Suez Canal, making it a key route for Asia-Europe container shipping and Middle Eastern energy exports.

Previously, oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reduced their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz through pipeline infrastructure. Saudi Arabia, for example, uses east-west pipelines to transport part of its crude oil supply to the Red Sea port of Yanbu before exporting through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.

However, if alternative export routes designed to bypass Hormuz are also affected by risks around Bab El-Mandeb, Middle Eastern energy transportation could face a "dual bottleneck" situation.

Currently, the Strait of Hormuz has not been officially declared closed, but vessel tracking data shows that commercial transit has already declined significantly. In the Bab El-Mandeb region, vessels have started adjusting routes after Houthi forces announced maritime restrictions targeting Saudi Arabia on July 20.

Tanker Market Faces Capacity Challenges

For the tanker industry, the biggest impact of risks surrounding both straits is declining vessel efficiency.

If tankers cannot safely pass through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, some vessels may choose to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending voyage distances. For Middle East-Asia routes, such diversions would increase transportation times and occupy more available shipping capacity.

Following the route adjustment of the "Xin Long Yang" vessel, the expected total voyage distance increased from approximately 7,000 nautical miles to more than 17,000 nautical miles, highlighting the cost impact caused by route changes.

The shipping market could face a unique situation: tanker freight rates may rise while actual available capacity declines.

This is because higher war-risk premiums, insurance restrictions, crew safety requirements, and risk assessments from financial institutions may lead some shipowners to avoid high-risk areas.

According to shipping brokerage firm Clarksons, while a complete maritime blockade would require further observation, any expansion of Houthi actions targeting Saudi-related vessels could significantly alter global crude oil trade flows and tanker deployment strategies.

Container Shipping Routes May Face Further Adjustments

Rising risks around the Bab El-Mandeb Strait could also directly affect global container shipping.

Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean, and Red Sea shipping routes all rely on the Suez Canal-Bab El-Mandeb corridor. During the previous Red Sea crisis, several container shipping companies maintained operations by rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in longer voyages, slower vessel rotations, and tighter capacity supply.

In July, companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM began testing the restoration of some Red Sea routes. However, if security conditions around the Bab El-Mandeb Strait deteriorate again, some services may return to rerouting around southern Africa.

For the container shipping market, this could create multiple chain reactions:

• Lower vessel rotation efficiency and reduced available capacity;

• Potential congestion at European and Mediterranean ports due to concentrated arrivals;

• Greater challenges for empty container allocation and schedule reliability.

Industry Outlook

Currently, neither the Strait of Hormuz nor the Bab El-Mandeb Strait has experienced a legally declared full blockade. However, shipping markets have already begun adjusting operations based on high-risk scenarios.

The previous Red Sea crisis demonstrated that commercial shipping disruption depends not only on whether a waterway is officially closed, but also on whether shipowners, insurers, crews, and financial institutions remain willing to accept operational risks.

For global shipping companies, the key issue moving forward is not only the potential escalation of military conflicts, but whether both major straits continue losing their "commercial usability".

If the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait remain under prolonged pressure simultaneously, the impact could extend beyond energy transportation and spread further across tanker markets, container shipping, ports, and global supply chains.